North America

The Fragile Dividend: Deciphering the US-Iran Ceasefire Sell-Off

The April 7 ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a historic energy sell-off, with Brent and WTI collapsing over 15%. However, a disconnect persists between market pricing and "armed peace" rhetoric. While traders are pricing in a return to normalcy, the continued military posture in the Strait of Hormuz and the two-week duration of the truce suggest that systemic supply risks remain. The "peace dividend" is currently a fragile reaction to a temporary pause in hostilities.