ECB — MARKETS BET ON ECB RATE PAUSE IN JULY BUT WATCH FOR HAWKISH TONE ON OIL PRICES

Investors are betting the European Central Bank will hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week, with markets pricing in less than a 15% chance of a July hike. The expectation of a pause follows a drop in eurozone inflation to 2.8% in June, though a second rate increase is fully priced in by October. Market participants will closely monitor President Christine Lagarde's commentary for any hawkish signals regarding the recent rebound in oil prices stemming from Middle East tensions.