Oman’s rising production is failing to translate into value as pricing and refining misalign
Oman’s upstream performance remains strong, with production rising 4.8% year on year in Q1 2026. However, a 16.5% decline in crude prices and uneven refining output are eroding value realization. Gas demand is shifting toward power and large industrial users. The system is producing more volume but capturing less value, indicating structural inefficiencies across the energy chain.
Oman’s upstream performance remains strong, with production rising 4.8% year on year in Q1 2026. However, a 16.5% decline in crude prices and uneven refining output are eroding value realization. Gas demand is shifting toward power and large industrial users. The system is producing more volume but capturing less value, indicating structural inefficiencies across the energy chain.
Rising production is being offset by weaker pricing and limited export conversion
Oman produced 93.09 million barrels of crude in Q1 2026, marking a 4.8% increase year on year. This confirms that upstream capacity is expanding and supply reliability remains intact. In isolation, this would typically support revenue growth.
However, pricing tells a different story. Average crude prices declined by 16.5% to $62.9 per barrel. This means Oman is earning less per unit despite higher output. Revenue quality, defined as earnings per barrel, is deteriorating even as volumes rise.
Exports reinforce this imbalance. Export volumes increased only 2.5% to 76.85 million barrels, lagging behind production growth. Incremental supply is not fully translating into monetized exports. With March production surging to 32.63 million barrels, output is becoming more front-loaded, increasing exposure to short-term price volatility.
Demand shifts and refining imbalances are creating inefficiencies across the system
The structure of energy
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